The Quantum Computing Collapse Has Begun

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A year ago, I predicted that quantum computing would not have a good 2024. The year is almost over, so let’s take a look at developments in the world of quantum computing, which has been a wild mix of good and bad news, including IBM’s revised quantum roadmap, Google’s error correction progress, and the fate of other quantum computing firms.

The Google paper is here:

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30 Comments

  1. Yeah – I think there are two ways quantum computing might succeed. A) the way you've outlined here – throw money at it and just batter the problems into ultimate submission. B) someone has a completely new idea for how to implement qubits that just is tremendously easier to make work.

    You can make predictions like you're making about A, but B could just come out of nowhere at any time. There is absolutely no way to predict it.

  2. I'm only amateur but this seems to compare the western world hurdles with western world hurdles. What about China? How is China influencing quantum computing, or Russia? Are they far ahead of the world as the funding base I imagine probably comes from the government but not competitive funding, and maybe not one company trying to make the greatest profits over the other companies like it seems to be in the Western World. Thanks though for your great insights! I liked and subscribed.

  3. Sabine is right, and it’s worst then she thinks: quantum computing is impossible since the probability of error is 1/2
    Anyone with a Phd in physics or in maths applied to quantum mechanics interested to review my paper : shout !

  4. Quantum mechanics theory itself is false. There is no such thing exist. The particles exist in 2 state at the same time is not possible . If that was true we would see such things in real life. Also the beginning of the theory of observation is not accurate its old and misleading. In that experiment the observer changing waves obviously.

  5. I remember when dexterity for robotic systems were thought to be way behind other AIs until people discovered that LLMs can write much better reward functions than humans. I think new AI breakthroughs will likely remove important roadblocks for quantum computing and nuclear fusion.

  6. Startup guy by trade and quantum physicist by Training here.
    There is a lot of smart people and dumb Money going into quantum information technologies, whenever you have this mix, SOMETHING useful is going to come out of it (remember http being born out of CERN …?), even if we can’t predict yet what. Lot’s of startup in this area will fail but that’s business as usual in the startup world, it’s not evidence that QC will die.
    My personal bets are on quantum networks and quantum cryptography

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